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A thought on 'Draws'
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 Art De La Guerre Index du Forum > Rules question V4
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Mark G Fry
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MessagePosté le: Dim Fév 05, 2023 11:23 am    Sujet du message: A thought on 'Draws' Répondre en citant
As we are all getting more competent in playing under v.4 - I am wondering whether we are seeing more 'Drawn' games?
I don't have any firm statistics to back this up, but it just 'feels' like this might be the case.

One thought I have had about draws - and this is a successful mechanism from another long standing set of ancient & medieval rules - is that when there is a drawn melee/combat that both of the main units fighting in the melee receive a Disruption (casualty). This greatly speeds up melees and it also has the added effect of making players much more cautious about throwing damaged units into combat.

In the other set of rules, where a drawn melee would result in both main units being Destroyed/Routed the remaining additional casualty is not applied. So you avoid the issue of a mutual destruction - although personally I wouldn't see that as too much of an issue.

Maybe it is something to play-test to see if it does speed up games and avoid some drawn games?
Cheers
Mark
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madaxeman
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MessagePosté le: Dim Fév 05, 2023 11:50 am    Sujet du message: Répondre en citant
Mark G Fry a écrit:
As we are all getting more competent in playing under v.4 - I am wondering whether we are seeing more 'Drawn' games?
I don't have any firm statistics to back this up, but it just 'feels' like this might be the case.

One thought I have had about draws - and this is a successful mechanism from another long standing set of ancient & medieval rules - is that when there is a drawn melee/combat that both of the main units fighting in the melee receive a Disruption (casualty). This greatly speeds up melees and it also has the added effect of making players much more cautious about throwing damaged units into combat.

In the other set of rules, where a drawn melee would result in both main units being Destroyed/Routed the remaining additional casualty is not applied. So you avoid the issue of a mutual destruction - although personally I wouldn't see that as too much of an issue.

Maybe it is something to play-test to see if it does speed up games and avoid some drawn games?
Cheers
Mark


Looking at the actual results spreadsheets for those events that I have access to (which is quite a lot of the UK ones) there is no evidence at all to support the idea that there are now more drawn games than there were in the past.

The vast majority of the drawn games at events in the UK are ending with both players a long way from breaking. Speeding up combat resolution wouldn't therefore make any difference to this.
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Mark G Fry
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MessagePosté le: Dim Fév 05, 2023 3:09 pm    Sujet du message: Répondre en citant
Interesting. Maybe it just feels like there are more draws 🤔

So, that then begs the question, what causes draws?

I know that at Brixham last year, I had one game, where just about every unit (on both sides) was in combat from game turn 3, but we still ended up with a draw. Both sides were reasonably well matched in the melees & neither was able to get an 'edge' on the other.

That might have been unusual, but it was that game (in particular) that spurred me to raise this post.

Thanks
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kevinj
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MessagePosté le: Dim Fév 05, 2023 4:05 pm    Sujet du message: Répondre en citant
So, some statistics. I've analysed the results from last year's Northern League. We had 117 games of which 22 ended as draws. 3 of those were mutual destructions which I'd exclude. Either way it's less than 20% of games ending in draws, which I'd regard as reasonable.

It may be worth further analysis of whether particular themes or special rules lead to more draws.
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AlanCutner
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MessagePosté le: Dim Fév 05, 2023 6:10 pm    Sujet du message: Répondre en citant
Backing up what Kevin and Tim have alread said.... Scottish Open was held a few weeks ago with a total of 80 games, with 18 draws of which 1 was a mutual destruction. So 20% draws seems to be pretty standard.
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Hazelbark
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MessagePosté le: Dim Fév 05, 2023 7:40 pm    Sujet du message: Répondre en citant
Most draws are driven by very specific factors.
1) Both players not aggressively engaging
2) Bulking of armies this often is an attempt to not lose but risks depowering offense and making harder to win at same time.
3) A hard-fought game that just comes up short on time.

I find a lot of players still imagine strategies that take many more turns to execute than they will actually have.

In US events our paper tracking has number of turns and most games are over on turn 5 and as stated 80% by turn 7 is on track.

Games that get to 9-11 turns involve two fast playing players of similar skill level with very maneuver-oriented armies.
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Zoltan
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MessagePosté le: Dim Fév 05, 2023 7:41 pm    Sujet du message: Répondre en citant
A higher rate of draws is also caused by:
1. slow (indecisive) players
2. the trend (by some) to seek solace in armies with very high unit counts

This weekend I played five 2.5 hour games at an event:
2 wins
1 mutual destruction (not really a draw)
1 draw where we were both about 4 points away from breaking (both with armies of 26 units)
1 draw where I killed 27 points out of the required 31 

Real draws are where:
1. both sides have only suffered 50% or less casualties, or
2. where the casualty count is below the more typical army size of 22-24 units, when time is called.
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Mark G Fry
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MessagePosté le: Dim Fév 05, 2023 9:43 pm    Sujet du message: Répondre en citant
Ok, so it sounds like it is my perception that there are an increased number of drawn games. Rather than this being the case in reality. Although I am unsure if there has been a change from v.3 to v.4?

c.20% of games as draws seems to be acceptable then.

The increase in army size is an interesting observation, although I think it was Tim, in a recent conversation at Alicante (?) who made the observation about increased numbers of units needing to be heavier troops to make a significant difference.

Interesting views.
Many thanks
Mark
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