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ethan
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Inscrit le: 12 Nov 2014
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 Posté le: Lun Aoû 03, 2015 9:01 pm Sujet du message: |
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If I am reading my old work correctly:
In FoG in a single round of combat a superior vs. average (4 vs. 4 I think, but as I recall this is similar in 6v6) (same PoAs) gives (roughly):
Superior wins 40%
Average wins 29%
Draw 31%
In ADLG an Elite fighting an Average
Elite wins 50%
Average wins 33%
Draw 17%
So many fewer draw, and the Elites actually win a fairly significantly greater percentage of the time. |
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A4
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Inscrit le: 08 Oct 2014
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| Posté le: Mar Aoû 04, 2015 2:19 pm Sujet du message: |
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| ethan a écrit: | Combat results in ADLG are no more random than those in FoG, I will try and post some numbers. In fact, ADLG has less random-ness than FoG as you tend to have about 20+ maneuver units in ADLG and around 12+ in FoG, so you are making more dice rolls - hence the law of large numbers is more likely to operate making the game less random
It is an "optical" illusion of sorts caused by the low factors. If it makes you feel better start every unit on a base factor of +100 and apply the various combat effects. The outcomes will be exactly the same but you won't feel like you are losing quite as much to one hit... |
Ethan,
You are likely right. I don't know much about stats but, for what it's worth, my feeling is that Fog would tend to give less random results because it bags dice together.
Say on one table six ADLG swords are fighting six swords. While on the next table a Fog unit of six blades is fighting a unit of six blades. Each ADLG pair dices separately. On each occasion there is a small but appreciable (a 1 in 36) chance of me rolling a 6 and you a 1. I don't have the maths to work-out the odds, but I'd guess that there is a decent chance of one or other of us getting a 6:1 split in our favour over the course of the melee.
In Fog they'd roll six dice aside and then compare them as a group. The chances of one player throwing six 6s and the other six 1s must be vanishingly small. Can't remember ever seeing that happen. If it or something similar did, then all six stands in the battleline might collapse, which wouldn't happen in ADLG, so I guess the effect of extreme luck would be greater. In ADLG good luck at one end of the line can be balanced by bad luck further down the line. I think tho, that Fog's bagging together of dice tends to muffle luck. Sort off in the same way as if you throw a dice once the result is random: you would be as likely to score a 6 as any other number; but if you throw it a thousand times you know the average roll will be 3.5.
I could easily be wrong, as I am not great on maths and I know stats can be counter-intuitive.
Also, from memory, I think in Fog the losing side has to roll more dice for morale and casualty removal, so that for a real disaster you need to be unlucky both in the combat roll and in these.
If ADLG is a bit more random I don't think that's a bad thing. If it gives weaker players a slightly better chance then that makes the game more challenging / exciting / better for both sides. Also, real melees were hugely random, so it makes things more realistic. It might even encourage us to do the sort of things that real generals did to mitigate / exploit bad / good luck (like keep reserves, for example).
Alan |
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eudes
Tribun
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| Posté le: Mar Aoû 04, 2015 2:49 pm Sujet du message: |
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| ethan a écrit: |
So many fewer draw, and the Elites actually win a fairly significantly greater percentage of the time. |
Yes in front to front fighting but Elite are less one the table and the flank contact is deadly bad in ADLG. So if you play against full elite army, take the wings and over flank him and then make him pain.
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eudes
Tribun
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| Posté le: Mar Aoû 04, 2015 2:56 pm Sujet du message: |
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@A4
I played hundred games of ADLG V1, V2, V3 and being two times Champion.
A lucky result dice is possible for some fight in a game and it is possible that result give you a little advantage on a part of the table but always the player with the best tactic and deploiement win at the end.
Sometimes dices don't help you but it is often when you have not help yourself before.
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A4
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| Posté le: Mar Aoû 04, 2015 6:13 pm Sujet du message: |
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| eudes a écrit: | @A4
I played hundred games of ADLG V1, V2, V3 and being two times Champion.
A lucky result dice is possible for some fight in a game and it is possible that result give you a little advantage on a part of the table but always the player with the best tactic and deploiement win at the end.
Sometimes dices don't help you but it is often when you have not help yourself before. |
Yes, it has been pointed-out that the same players reach the top of most competitions. That cannot happen by chance.
I am a beginner, so my battles depend more on luck. Still, in about four out of five of my games chance played no part or, rather it evened-out. As you say one player might be lucky in one part of the field, his opponent might be lucky elsewhere. The player who made fewest mistakes won.
Still, it does seem to me that an individual fight between two units can often produce an unexpected result. Do skilled players allow for that: for example by holding a reserve? At my level of play most people seem to form in a thin line to get overlaps and hope that the line will hold.
With thanks,
Alan |
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ethan
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Inscrit le: 12 Nov 2014
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| Posté le: Mar Aoû 04, 2015 9:31 pm Sujet du message: |
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| A4 a écrit: |
In Fog they'd roll six dice aside and then compare them as a group. The chances of one player throwing six 6s and the other six 1s must be vanishingly small. Can't remember ever seeing that happen. If it or something similar did, then all six stands in the battleline might collapse, which wouldn't happen in ADLG, so I guess the effect of extreme luck would be greater. In ADLG good luck at one end of the line can be balanced by bad luck further down the line. I think tho, that Fog's bagging together of dice tends to muffle luck. Sort off in the same way as if you throw a dice once the result is random: you would be as likely to score a 6 as any other number; but if you throw it a thousand times you know the average roll will be 3.5. |
Really it is the opposite. There are fewer "events" in FoG as there are fewer battlegroups/elements fighting which means the variance (or chance of getting lucky) is higher.
The numbers I quote for FoG are for 4 element BG fighting (and it turns out not very differently for 6 element BGs actually) so it is accounting for 4 dice vs. 4 dice in FoG and 1 die vs 1 die in ADLG.
There is much more "luck" in FoG than I think you are crediting it with. FoG also has two additional sources of luck the casaulty roll and the demoralization roll. It is pretty easy to take 3 hits in combat and 1 time in 6 you will then take a casaulty despite having "won" the combat... |
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A4
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| Posté le: Lun Aoû 10, 2015 11:32 am Sujet du message: |
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| ethan a écrit: | | A4 a écrit: |
In Fog they'd roll six dice aside and then compare them as a group. The chances of one player throwing six 6s and the other six 1s must be vanishingly small. Can't remember ever seeing that happen. If it or something similar did, then all six stands in the battleline might collapse, which wouldn't happen in ADLG, so I guess the effect of extreme luck would be greater. In ADLG good luck at one end of the line can be balanced by bad luck further down the line. I think tho, that Fog's bagging together of dice tends to muffle luck. Sort off in the same way as if you throw a dice once the result is random: you would be as likely to score a 6 as any other number; but if you throw it a thousand times you know the average roll will be 3.5. |
Really it is the opposite. There are fewer "events" in FoG as there are fewer battlegroups/elements fighting which means the variance (or chance of getting lucky) is higher.
The numbers I quote for FoG are for 4 element BG fighting (and it turns out not very differently for 6 element BGs actually) so it is accounting for 4 dice vs. 4 dice in FoG and 1 die vs 1 die in ADLG.
There is much more "luck" in FoG than I think you are crediting it with. FoG also has two additional sources of luck the casaulty roll and the demoralization roll. It is pretty easy to take 3 hits in combat and 1 time in 6 you will then take a casaulty despite having "won" the combat... |
Ethan, I've no way of telling whether your knowledge of stats is better or worse than mine. Common sense suggests to me that if you roll lots of dice and take (in effect) an average from them you will tend to get a more homogenised result than if you compare a pair of dice. But I know enough about stats to realise that "common sense" can mislead. As I mentioned in the part of my reply that you quoted this will be offset to some extent by the greater number of melees / units in ADLG as against Fog, but I don't know to what extent. If you can model that I'd be interested in seeing your workings.
From what it's worth I have found ADLG to be a bit more chancy than Fog. Tho that may just be down to inexperience; and I realise in any case that one tends to see what one expects to see.
I hope I'm right, because the need to react to / mitigate something that is going unexpectedly wrong or to exploit good fortune adds decision points and to the excitement. I suspect also that in testing our ability to react to uncertain events it gets us a bit closer to real warfare. I know of at least one player who has switched from Fog to ADLG in part because of this.
Alan |
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ethan
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| Posté le: Mer Aoû 12, 2015 9:02 pm Sujet du message: |
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| FoG melee is much more random than you might think due to the opposed nature of melee combat. This causes what seems like small advantages to turn fairly decisive, but it also means it is easier to lose than you might think. |
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A4
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| Posté le: Ven Aoû 14, 2015 1:42 pm Sujet du message: |
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| ethan a écrit: | | FoG melee is much more random than you might think due to the opposed nature of melee combat. This causes what seems like small advantages to turn fairly decisive, but it also means it is easier to lose than you might think. |
Ethan, a friend has walked me through the AD melee stats and I'm coming to feel you might be right in thinking chance doesn't play much part in them.
I played a fair amount of Fog and found the melees a bit too predictable. I don't want to knock Fog, which was in many ways a good set, but I'm finding AD melees more varied and exciting so far. That may be down to inexperience, but I hope not.
Alan |
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ethan
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| Posté le: Jeu Aoû 20, 2015 11:14 am Sujet du message: |
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| One factor that may make ADLG feel more "luck dependent" is that compared especially to DBM and to a lesser extent I think FoG it is much harder to engineer "can't lose" positions. Especially when you combine that with the fact the an ADLG along a line produces more outcomes (compared to FoG), some of those outcomes are likely to be negative. |
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madaxeman
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Inscrit le: 01 Nov 2014
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| Posté le: Jeu Aoû 20, 2015 12:53 pm Sujet du message: |
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| ethan a écrit: | | ...compared especially to DBM and to a lesser extent I think FoG it is much harder to engineer "can't lose" positions. |
I think you are saying that it is more dice dependent 
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